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                | American Survival Newsletter:
 Combining the World of Finance, Health & Politics
 9/28/12
 
 
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            | American Gold 
 A weekly newsletter brought to you by
 Discount Gold & Silver 800-375-4188
 Edited by Alfred Adask
 Friday, September 28th, A.D. 2012
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                      | MARKETS |  
                      |  | Between Friday, September 21st and Friday, September 28th, the bid prices for:
 
 
 
                           
                           	| Gold fell 0.0  % from $1,773.00 to $1,771.10 |  
                           	| Silver fell 0.0  % from $34.52 to $34.49 |  
                           	| Platinum rose 1.6 % from $1,632 to $1,659 |  
                           	| Palladium fell 4.8 % from $669 to $637 |  
                           	| DJIA fell 1.0 % from 13,579.47 to 13,437.13 |  
                           	| NASDAQ fell 2.0 % from 3,179.96 to 3,116.23 |  
                           	| NYSE fell 1.5 % from 8,377.51 to 8,251.00 |  
                           	| US Dollar Index rose 0.8 % from 79.34 to 79.96 |  
                           	| Crude Oil fell 1.1 % from $93.06 to $92.05 |  |  |  
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              | In May of 2012  the generic market premiums have continued a  slow but steady expansion. Once the government officially announced QE 3 and  spot gold broke through $1700 activity in the generic gold market has  solidified considerably. Nothing like a little money printing by the government  to get people back into the mode of protecting themselves from the eroding  value of their paper money as you should. And while market conditions in  generics are infinitely better than earlier in the year, premiums have a long  way to go to be considered expensive. So far we have a somewhat orderly market  with a relatively even supply vs. demand split, while somewhat leaning toward  tighter supplies. The last quarter of the year has historically been favorable  both for the spot price of gold as well as the generic market. So far it looks  like this trend will continue. |  
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                        |  | “Made in America” coins are a great way to protect your wealth! 
 GOLD is up $162 since 8/17
 SILVER is up  $6.45 since 8/17
 
 
 |  Being offered today are Common Date (1890-1907) Liberty $20 MS62.
 Dates and/or Grading Service (NGC or PCGS) are based upon in-stock inventory.
 
 The $20 Liberty Head gold coin features Lady Liberty surrounded by 13 stars signifying the 13 original colonies. On the reverse is an eagle with the denomination and date. The $20 Liberty Head gold coin was designed by James B. Longacre, has reeded edges, measures 34 millimeters in diameter, and has a composition of .900 gold and .100 copper. The coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold. The $20 Liberty Head gold coin was official currency until 1933 when Franklin Delano Roosevelt removed gold coins from circulation. The $20 Liberty is the first to also be known as the Double Eagle. The coin presented here has a grading of MS62.
 
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 If you purchase 10 coins that is a saving of $1700!!
 
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 Call  Discount Gold and Silver at
 1 800 375 4188 ask for Melody
 
 **Prices are subject to change based on market conditions and availability.  This special can be removed for offer at anytime.
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                | "Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to  hold
 if the market shut down for 10 years."—Warren  Buffett
 
 “What investment would you dare to hold
 for  10 years—other than gold?”—Alfred  Adask
 
 
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                | Oil Up—or Oil Down?
 
 by Alfred Adask
 Last year’s “Arab Spring” toppled four Middle East  governments and threatened thirteen more.
 
 That regional uprising was partially inspired by the  rising costs and falling supplies of food.
 
 Modern agriculture has been described as the process of  turning crude oil into food.  The  relationship between crude and food is seen in the petroleum-basis for  fertilizer and for the gas and diesel fuels that power tractors in the field  and trucks hauling produce to market.
 
 Thus, the global price of crude oil will largely  determine the global supply and price of food.   Therefore, the price of crude will determine how many nations are  destabilized, how many governments are overturned, how many people riot before  they starve to death.
 
 • The price of crude oil has been anything but stable  this year. In March it was, $117/barrel; in June, $90; back up to $105 in  August; and currently, $92.
 
 So where’s the price of oil headed?  Up or down?
 
 The answer’s important since lower crude oil prices  should reduce food and energy prices and contribute to global stability.  This year, the price of crude becomes doubly  important since the US is suffering the worst drought in more than 50  years.
 
 Because the US exports more food than anyone else, the American drought threatens the world’s food supply.  If America can’t export enough food, the  world can expect another year of political instability similar to the Arab  Spring.
 
 The global food shortage is aggravated by the fact that  wheat crops in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have been devastated by  drought.   Australia and India have also  been adversely affected.
 
 Global food production is declining; global food demand  is rising.  Rising food prices will rise  and falling food supplies may precipitate political upheavals.
 
 Given the critical relationship of petroleum to modern  agriculture, the price of crude oil will help determine whether the world  erupts into chaos, or remains fairly stable.
 
 So is the price of crude more likely to rise or fall  over the next year?
 
 •  Before I make  my prediction, let’s look at some recent history:
 “In Arab Spring, Obama Finds a Sharp Test. . . . Mr. Obama, on Feb.  1, 2011, told [Egyptian president] Mubarak that [he] had to step down.  Minutes later, a grim Mr. Obama appeared  before hastily summoned cameras. The end of Mr. Mubarak’s 30-year rule, Mr.  Obama said, ‘must begin now.’  With those  words, Mr. Obama upended three decades of American relations with its most  stalwart ally in the Arab world, putting the weight of the United States  squarely on the side of the Arab street.” Nineteen months after President Obama helped topple  Egypt’s former President Mubarak, Egypt’s new President, Mohamed Morsi, visited  the US and said,
 “It was a risky move by the American president, flying in the face of advice from elders on his staff at the State Department and at the Pentagon, who had spent decades  nursing the autocratic—but staunchly pro-American—Egyptian government.
 
 “Nineteen months later . .  . anti-American protests broke out  in Egypt and Libya [and] led to the  deaths of four Americans, including the United States ambassador to Libya.
 
 “Mr. Obama had learned  hard lessons over almost two years of political turmoil in the Arab world: bold words and support for democratic  aspirations are not enough to engender good will in this region.” —The New York Times
 “Washington is asking  Egypt to honor its treaty with Israel, [but] Washington should also live up to  its own Camp David commitment to Palestinian self-rule.  The United States must respect the Arab  world’s history and culture, even when that conflicts with Western values. . .  . The United States should not expect  Egypt to live by its rules. . . . If you want to judge the performance of  the Egyptian people by the standards of German or Chinese or American culture,  then there is no room for judgment. When  the Egyptians decide something, probably it is not appropriate for the  U.S.  When the Americans decide  something, this, of course, is not appropriate for Egypt.”—The New York TimesTranslation?   Say, “bye-bye” to Egyptian support of US policies in the Middle  East—including Egypt’s current treaty with Israel. 
 Say “Hello” to unprecedented Middle East turmoil.
 
 And if the Middle East erupts into another Arab Spring,  say “Hello” to higher petroleum prices, high food prices, food shortages, food  riots, and more political upheaval in the Middle East—which will fuel even  higher petroleum prices, more food shortages, and more political instability.  If the Middle East can’t be calmed, the  spiral of higher crude oil prices, less food and more political stability will  continue until the population of the Middle East is dramatically reduced.
 “U.S.  Is Preparing for a Long Siege of Arab Unrest.  The White House is girding itself for an extended period of turmoil that will  test the security of American diplomatic missions and President Obama’s ability  to shape the forces of change in the Middle East.”—The New York TimesAnd here’s a beauty from the UK Telegraph: “An armada of US and  British naval power is massing in the Persian Gulf in the belief that Israel is  considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons  programme.  Cruisers, aircraft carriers and  minesweepers from 25 nations are  converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel  and Iran move towards the brink of war.”Warships from 25  nations in one small geographic area?   That’s never happened before.   That concentration of power in the Middle East is reminiscent of Revelation. “Western leaders are  convinced that Iran will retaliate to any attack by attempting to mine or  blockade the shipping lane through which passes around 18 million barrels of  oil every day, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s oil traded by sea.  A blockade would have a catastrophic effect  on the fragile economies of Britain, Europe the United States and Japan, all of  which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf.” M’thinks the White House doth protest too much.
 •  “With  Obama policy crumbling, White House blames movie for Mideast unrest.  With anti-American demonstrations exploding  across the Muslim world, the White House insists that the deadly attack on U.S.  diplomats in Libya and violent protests targeting U.S. facilities in Egypt and  several other countries are entirely the result of an anti-Islamic video on  YouTube.
 
 “This is a fairly volatile  situation and it is in response not to United States policy, not to the administration, not to the American people,” White House spokesman  Jay Carney said Friday.  “It is in response to a video, a film that we have judged to be reprehensible and  disgusting.  That in no way justifies any violent reaction to it, but this  is not a case of protests  directed at the United States or at U.S.  policy.  This is in response to a video that is offensive to Muslims.”—The  Washington Examiner
 
 The truth behind the recent Middle East attacks on the  US is probably closer to descriptions seen in several German newspapers:
 •  "The deeply held American belief that  all you have to do is liberate people from serfdom and dictatorship, and then  democracy and a market economy will develop more or less on their own, burned  to ash in the trial by fire of Iraq.  A  fact that academics and historically-informed diplomats have always known can  now be observed throughout the Arab world: Deeply ingrained cultural attitudes do not change simply  because one political regime replaces another.   In the long process of building a democratic society, it is not possible  to simply skip stages."—Allgemeine Zeitung •   "President Barack Obama's  Middle East policy is in ruins. Like no president before him, he tried to  win over the Arab world. After some initial hesitation, he came out clearly on  the side of the democratic revolutions. . . . In this context, he has snubbed old close allies such as  Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Egyptian military. . . . Anti-Americanism in the Arab world has even increased to levels greater than in the Bush era.  It's a bitter outcome for Obama.  One thing is clear: If  jihadists believe they can attack American installations and kill an ambassador on the anniversary of Sept.  11, then America's deterrent power has  declined considerably."—Die Welt •  "Three years after Obama's speech in  Cairo, which was supposed to initiate a new beginning in the Middle East, the  United States now has even less support  in the region than before. . . . It is the consequences of an American foreign policy that for decades  favored power over democracy, and a hard line over human rights—and which  will suffer from a credibility problem for a long time for precisely those  reasons."—HandelsblattSo long as the US government’s credit was unlimited,  the “petro-dollar” was the “world reserve currency,” and the Federal Reserve  could “spin money out of thin air,” our government could buy or bribe every  dictator in the world.  Our status as the  world’s only super-power status flowed from our “super-currency”. 
 But as the US government’s credit rating falls, as the  fiat dollar sheds its status as “world reserve currency,” and our Fed’s ability  to “spin money” is compromised by rising inflation and dollar devaluation . . .  our ability to buy or bribe dictators must decline.
 
 In the end, our government is too arrogant and/or  corrupt to inspire most people’s support based on its ideals or integrity.  We’ve traded our status of “Land of the Free”  for “Land of the World Reserve Currency”.   Our government was thereby able to buy the support of foreign dictators and domestic welfare and subsidy recipients  with “mo’ money, mo’ money, mo’ money.”
 
 But when the money stops flowing from gov-co, the  support of  the  world and the American people for our  national government will also stop.
 
 In the Middle East, a region of Balkan-like instability  and conflict, there’s no longer a  “strong hand” to support or even command stability and order.  It’s going to be extremely difficult, perhaps  impossible, to contain Middle East tensions.
 
 The prospect of one or more Middle East wars—not just  political revolutions—grows daily.  I  will not be surprised to see Israel and its adversaries “nuke it out”.
 •   “Iran:   Let’s Price Crude at $150 per Barrel”—ReutersIran’s oil minister was recently quoted as saying crude  oil should be at least $150 per barrel and that oil prices weren’t high enough  to threaten the world economy.  I don’t  know if that oil minister is doing drugs or standup comedy, but pricing crude  at $150 won’t only push the global economy deeper into depression, it will  precipitate food riots.  The world  economy and the impoverished people of the Middle East cannot survive $150  crude. 
 Unless The Powers That Be want a global depression and want Middle East madness, they won’t allow  the price of crude oil to rise significantly.
 
 In fact, those Powers should want the price of crude to fall.
 
 Even if they don’t, there are market forces at work  that will cause the price of crude to fall dramatically.
 
 •  James Beck is  the lead analyst of the Weekly Petroleum Supply Team for the Energy Information  Administration, Office of Petroleum and Biofuels Statistics.  He recently wrote:
 “The data support your  general point that total petroleum  product demand is at 1997/98 levels. . . .   This 15 years of demand  destruction cannot be explained fully by increased efficiency or increased  use of biofuels and renewables (these have, at most, a marginal effect). This  is truly an indication of the real and continuing trouble in our economy, high  unemployment and underemployment, loss of manufacturing, and reduction of  shipping. OK, if the global demand for crude oil has fallen to levels seen 15 years ago, I agree that the numbers  don’t suggest we’re in a “recovery”.   Instead, those numbers only confirm what you and I already know we’re at  least in a recession and probably a global depression and the global economy is  starting to crater.  That’s not news.
 “Demand for gasoline continues to be below 2002 levels
 
 “Distillate demand for April - June, it is down  nearly 4.5% from last year . . . at its lowest  level since 2002. Since diesel  demand is a very good proxy for the health of the economy (all shipping  uses diesel--trucking, rail, barge, etc.), this weakening from last year  continues to be source of concern for the economy.
 
 “Demand for jet fuel has also fallen dramatically from 2007/08 (it  had also fallen dramatically after the 9/11 attacks, never fully recovering to  the levels seen from 1999 - 2001). KJet demand continues to be at levels we  have not seen since 1994/95.
 
 “These numbers do not tell  me that we are in a recovery.”
 
 However, according to Inflationdata.com, the  price/barrel of crude ranged between $12 and $27 in A.D. 1997=98, and averaged  about twenty bucks a barrel.
 
 So far, this year, the price of crude oil has averaged  about $92 per barrel.
 
 So, if the current demand for crude oil is equal to the demand last seen in A.D. 1997-1998 (when prices  averaged about $20/barrel), how do  we justify today’s price of $92?  I know that there are factors other than  demand (like supply and inflation) that affect the price of crude oil.  Nevertheless, when the levels of global  demand for crude oil in A.D. 2012 are similar to the levels seen in A.D. 1997,  shouldn’t the prices also be similar?   Instead, we see the current price of crude is four times higher.   Given  the fall in demand, I don’t believe the current price can be sustained.
 
 I’m not suggesting that the price of crude oil will  soon drop to $20/barrel.  But I am  suggesting that the free market force of drastically-diminished demand will  drive the price considerably lower than it is right now.
 
 •  The New World  Order is finally about “order”.  I know  that they seek “ordo ab chao,” but there are some levels of chaos that are too  chaotic to foster much order.  The Middle  East is crucial to the global supply of crude oil and to the the maintenance of  the global economy.  But the Middle East  is also so explosively unstable.  I doubt  that the “Powerz” will dare raise the price of crude, food and energy and risk  further global destabilization.
 
 Thus, for political reasons, the price of crude should  fall.
 
 For free market reasons (demand reduced to A.D. 1997  levels), the price of crude should fall.
 
 My prediction?   We’ll see $70 crude oil long before we see $150 crude oil.
 
 But if I’m mistaken and the price of crude rises to,  say, $120, it will signal that the “Powerz” want the Middle East to explode.   In that case, it will be wise to flee the Middle East.
 
 It may even be wise to flee the Northern Hemisphere.
 
 
 
 
 For the best in pricing and  service for gold and silver coins, call Melody at 1-800-375-4188.  Be sure to listen to DGSTC live on Short-wave  7.490Mhz M-F 4:00PM ET, and 9.880 MHz. Online listen to archives at dgscoins.com and American Voice Radio.
 
 Call 1-800-375-4188 or visit the Web site at discountgoldandsilvertrading.net
 
 or email us at: discountgoldandsilver@yahoo.com
 
 Discount Gold & Silver  Trading Co. provides all forms of precious metals including gold, silver,  platinum and palladium whether you are buying or selling.  Our inventory includes but not limited to the  American Gold, Silver, Platinum Eagle and numismatic products including rare,  investment and circulated coins. Silver dollars, silver bars, rounds are on hand for the silver investor.   Foreign gold is also available.   Call for information regarding your precious metal gold and silver  IRA.
 
 
 
1-800-375-4188
 
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